Trip Production Forecasting Models for Urban Areas

by William J. Fogarty, Prof. of Civ. Engrg.; Univ. of Miami, Coral Gables, Fla.,

Serial Information: Transportation Engineering Journal of ASCE, 1976, Vol. 102, Issue 4, Pg. 831-845

Document Type: Journal Paper


Analysis of data from approx 15 origin-destination studies in a population range of 20,000 - 500,000 was performed to develop, through the use of factor analysis and regression-correlation techniques, a number of simplistic models that quantify the number of various types of trips in various types of vehicles by various users relative to definable attributes of the urban areas (i.e., population, car ownership, etc.). The purpose of the development of the models is to allow the transportation planner the opportunity to quantify estimated gross trip numbers in his community by purpose and mode in a relatively easy manner with the expectation that the predicted values achieved will be within a reasonable degree of accuracy to the actual value that will occur.

Subject Headings: Regression analysis | Travel modes | Traffic models | Forecasting | Urban areas | Model accuracy | Population projection | Travel patterns

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