Urban Travel Demand Models with Competitive Modes

by Paul J. Ossenbruggen, (M.ASCE), Assoc. Prof.; Dept. of Civ. Engrg., Univ. of New Hampshire, Durham, N.H.,
Alex Li, Research Assoc.; Interdisciplinary Transportation Program, Northeastern Univ., Boston, Mass.,

Serial Information: Transportation Engineering Journal of ASCE, 1976, Vol. 102, Issue 3, Pg. 585-598

Document Type: Journal Paper


The principles of microeconomics and consumer demand theory are utilized to form the mathematical structure of urban travel demand models. Competition between the automobile and four different public transportation mode options is considered. The automobile, which competes with one of the public transport options in a transit corridor, is assumed to make up a competitive mode model system. A stepwise linear regression procedure has been used to calibrate and test statistical significance of each competitive mode model system. A sensitivity analysis has been performed to evaluate the effect of multicollinearity upon model parameter estimates. A calibration procedure that insures the model estimates are statistically valid and consistent is presented. An investigation of the Boston metropolitan area is used in a case study.

Subject Headings: Public transportation | Mathematical models | Sensitivity analysis | Urban areas | Travel demand | Travel modes | Automobiles | Transportation corridors | Boston | Massachusetts | United States

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