Applications of Large Domain Hydrodynamic Models to Generate Frequency-of-Occurrence Relationships

by Norman W. Scheffner, (M.ASCE), U.S. Army Engineer Waterways, Experiment Station, Vicksburg, United States,
Leon E. Borgman, (M.ASCE), U.S. Army Engineer Waterways, Experiment Station, Vicksburg, United States,
David J. Mark, U.S. Army Engineer Waterways, Experiment Station, Vicksburg, United States,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Estuarine and Coastal Modeling

Abstract:

This paper describes theory and application of the Empirical Simulation Technique (EST), a statistical procedure for simulating time sequencing and frequency-of-occurrence relationships for non-deterministic multi-parameter systems. Procedures described are applied to the simulation of multiple years of tropical storm events and the estimation of recurrence relationships for storm responses such as maximum surge elevation (described herein), shoreline erosion, or dune recession. The development of the input data set of descriptive storm parameters and their respective responses require the use of both planetary boundary layer storm models and very large domain hydrodynamic models. Development and use of this input data base is described through an application of the EST to data generated for the coast of Delaware storm surge study, a pilot demonstration of the validity of the frequency computation procedure to large domains. Because implementation of the EST technique is based on N-repetitions of T-year simulations, computed mean-value frequency relationships are assigned confidence limits such that probability of occurrence can be defined with error band estimates.

Subject Headings: Storm surges | Hydrologic models | Hydrodynamics | Simulation models | Mathematical models | Errors (statistics) | Erosion | Delaware | United States

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