A New Look at the Statistical Estimation of PMP

by Bingzhang Lin, Maryland Univ at Coll Park, Silver Spring, United States,
John Vogel, Maryland Univ at Coll Park, Silver Spring, United States,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Engineering Hydrology

Abstract:

The statistical base of Hershfield's K_mvalue Method and its application for estimating Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) were reviewed. The mathematical expression for K_m was re-derived. This new derivation made it clear that K_m is dependent on only two variables: the deviation from the mean, T_m, and the sample size, n. It was found that K_m is a consistent estimate of T_m when K_m ? T_m. Therefore, K_m can be used to make a preliminary estimate of the probable extreme rainfall based on the general frequency equation, when sufficient rainfall data are available. Some criteria for using the revised K_m-value method and its advantages and disadvantages are discussed in estimation of the PMP 24-h point rainfalls in Texas.

Subject Headings: Statistics | Rainfall frequency | Precipitation | Frequency distribution | Meteorology | Mathematics | Hydrologic data | Texas | United States

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