Assessing Fault Rupture Hazard for the Proposed Repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada: Demonstration of a Methodology Using Expert Judgments

by Roseanne C. Perman, Geomatrix Consultants, Inc, San Francisco, United States,
Kevin J. Coppersmith, Geomatrix Consultants, Inc, San Francisco, United States,
Robert R. Youngs, Geomatrix Consultants, Inc, San Francisco, United States,
Robert A. Shaw, Geomatrix Consultants, Inc, San Francisco, United States,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: High Level Radioactive Waste Management 1993

Abstract:

As part of the Electric Power Research Institute's High Level Waste (EPRI HLW) performance assessment, we have developed and demonstrated a methodology to estimate the magnitude and likelihood of earthquake-related fault rupture that could affect the proposed high-level waste repository at Yucca Mountain. A panel of seven earth sciences experts was selected to develop estimates of the probability of fault displacement through the repository, as well as to quantify the uncertainties associated with the assessment. A series of technical workshops focusing on the issues and involving expert judgement elicitation were conducted. Each expert was individually interviewed to elicit his judgement regarding the technical issues and to provide the technical basis for his assessment. The study illustrates a methodology for quantifying uncertainties associated with a complex technical issue that has been the subject of diversity of opinion.

Subject Headings: Radioactive wastes | Surface fault rupture | Geohazards | Waste disposal | Uncertainty principles | Recycling | Probability

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