Hale Cycle and Indian Drought and Flood Area Indices

by A. Ramachandra Rao, Purdue Univ, West Lafayette, IN, USA,
G. H. Yu, Purdue Univ, West Lafayette, IN, USA,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Water Forum '86: World Water Issues in Evolution

Abstract:

The Indian Drought (DAI) and flood (FAI) area indices have been argued to be related to the hale cycle of sunspot number by H. N. Bhalme and D. A. Mooley. They studied the dependence between sunspot number, DAI and FAI series by using spectral, cross spectral and dial analysis. Univariate ARMA models are fitted and validated to sunspot number, DAI and FAI series. The cross correlation properties of residuals from these models are studied. The results indicate that there is no significant relationship between sunspot number and FAI series. There is consistent, significant relationship between sunspot number and mild and moderate DAI series. However, these relationships are not strong enough to be of use in prediction.

Subject Headings: Floods | Droughts | Water resources | Solar radiation | Water shortage | Validation | Time series analysis

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