American Society of Civil Engineers


Transferability of Hurricane Evacuation Choice Model: Joint Model Estimation Combining Multiple Data Sources


by S. Hasan, Ph.D., (Student, School of Civil Engineering, Purdue Univ., 550 Stadium Mall Drive, West Lafayette, IN 47907. E-mail: samiul.hasan@gmail.com), R. Mesa-Arango, Ph.D., (Student, School of Civil Engineering, Purdue Univ., 550 Stadium Mall Drive, West Lafayette, IN 47907. E-mail: rmesaa@gmail.com), S. Ukkusuri, Ph.D., (corresponding author), (Associate Professor, School of Civil Engineering, Purdue Univ., 550 Stadium Mall Drive, West Lafayette, IN 47907. E-mail: sukkusur@purdue.edu), and P. Murray-Tuite, Ph.D., A.M.ASCE, (Assistant Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Virginia Tech, 7054 Haycock Road, Falls Church, VA 22043. E-mail: murraytu@vt.edu)

Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 138, No. 5, May 2012, pp. 548-556, (doi:  http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000365)

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Document type: Journal Paper
Section Heading: Transportation Systems
Abstract: Inferences on hurricane evacuation behavior are usually drawn through developing empirical models. These models are estimated using data that are specific to a given hurricane context. One important issue, therefore, is whether such models are applicable to different hurricane contexts. This paper investigates this transferability issue of evacuation choice models across different hurricanes. Initially, we estimate three separate models of the binary decision to evacuate or not, using data sets from three hurricanes (Andrew, Ivan, and Katrina) that occurred at different periods. Then a joint model is estimated combining these three evacuation data sources. When estimating the model jointly, the differences among the scale parameters of the data sets are specifically accounted for. The results from joint and separate models are then statistically tested to evaluate whether evacuation decision model parameters are transferable across different hurricane contexts. The result from the statistical test suggests that the parameters of the evacuation choice models are transferable over different hurricane contexts in similar regions, an important implication for policymakers and emergency preparedness agencies.


ASCE Subject Headings:
Data analysis
Emergency management
Florida
Hurricanes
Models

Author Keywords:
Hurricanes
Evacuation
Model transferability
Binary logit
Hurricane evacuation behavior