American Society of Civil Engineers


Prediction of Mountain Road Closure Due to Rainfall-Induced Landslides


by Shu-Rong Yang, (corresponding author), (Assistant Professor, Dept. of Civil Engineering, National Pingtung Univ. of Science and Technology, 1, Shuefu Rd., Neipu, Pingtung 91201, Taiwan. E-mail: sryang@mail.npust.edu.tw), Che-Wei Shen, (Associate Research Fellow, Geotechnical Engineering Research Center of Sinotech Engineering Consultants, Inc., Basement, No.7, Lane 26, Yat-Sen Rd., Taipei 11071, Taiwan; and Ph.D. Student, Dept. of Civil Engineering, National Taiwan Univ, Taiwan. E-mail: cwshen@sinotech.org.tw), Chuen-Ming Huang, (Assistant Research Fellow, Geotechnical Engineering Research Center of Sinotech Engineering Consultants, Inc., Basement, No.7, Lane 26, Yat-Sen Rd., Taipei 11071, Taiwan. E-mail: odin@sinotech.org.tw), Chyi-Tyi Lee, (Professor, Institute of Applied Geology, National Central Univ., No.300, Jungda Rd., Jungli City, Taoyuan County 32001, Taiwan. E-Mail: ct@ncu.edu.tw), Chin-Tung Cheng, (Senior Research Fellow, Geotechnical Engineering Research Center of Sinotech Engineering Consultants, Inc., Basement, No.7, Lane 26, Yat-Sen Rd., Taipei 11071, Taiwan. E-mail: ctcheng@sinotech.org.tw), and Chen-Yu Chen, (Director, Soil and Water Conservation Bureau, Council of Agriculture, No.6, Guanghua Rd., Nantou City, Nantou County 54044, Taiwan. E-mail: cychen@mail.swcb.gov.tw)

Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities, Vol. 26, No. 2, March/April 2012, pp. 197-202, (doi:  http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CF.1943-5509.0000242)

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Document type: Journal Paper
Special Issue: Performance of Transportation Infrastructure
Abstract: The implementation of landslide probability analysis was undertaken to evaluate the effect of landsliding on closures of major mountain road networks at Guoshin Township in central Taiwan. To achieve this objective, an event-based landslide probability analysis method was adopted to establish a landslide prediction model by using a set of training data from the landslides triggered by Typhoon Mindulle in July 2004. Landslide causative factors and triggering factors were selected in a logistic regression scheme so that the criteria for successfully distinguishing landslides from nonlandslides were established. Landslide occurrence probability was mapped in the whole study area and along the road route. Locations of high potential for landslide occurrence were, thus, highlighted along the road route and were proposed for road closure during typhoon events. At last, the proposed locations for road closure were validated by historical road closures caused by subsequent typhoons after Typhoon Mindulle. Validation results show that the proposed model could be used in predicting road closure resulting from storm-induced landslides.


ASCE Subject Headings:
Highways and roads
Landslides
Rainfall
Predictions
Taiwan

Author Keywords:
Road closure
Landslide
Logistic regression