American Society of Civil Engineers


Research on Urban Water Supply Pipeline Breakage Probability Model


by Chengzhi Zheng, (Graduate Student, School of Municipal and Environmental Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology; B06, The Second Campus of Harbin Institute of Technology, 73 Huanghe Road, Nangang District, Harbin 150090. E-mail: buye3000@163.com), Jinliang Gao, (Associate Professor, School of Municipal and Environmental Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology; Box 2624, Harbin Institute of Technology, 73 Huanghe Road, Nangang District, Harbin 150090. E-mail: gjl@hit.edu.cn), Haoqiang Tan, (Graduate student, School of Municipal and Environmental Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology), Wenjie He, (Professor, School of Municipal and Environmental Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology; Tianjin Water Works Group Company Ltd., Tianjin 300040), and Jichang Zhang, (Graduate student, School of Municipal and Environmental Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology)
Section: Pipeline Failures, pp. 927-940, (doi:  http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/41202(423)98)

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Document type: Conference Proceeding Paper
Part of: ICPTT 2011: Sustainable Solutions For Water, Sewer, Gas, And Oil Pipelines
Abstract: In order to predict the breakage trends of each pipeline in the urban water supply networks, investigators collected a great deal of information about pipeline breakage, with the theoretical analysis of pipeline breakage factors and analysis of collected data, the urban water supply pipeline breakage probability model was constructed. And the research used the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method to analyze the pipeline breakage factors; it took the pipeline internal status and pipeline external status as the 2 first level indicators, and material, diameter, pipe age, corrosion, operating conditions, seasons changing and construction quality as the 7 second level indicators. Including pipeline’s length, 8 variables were synthesized in one model. As expected, all the pipelines can be sorted according to the size of the breakage probability calculated by the model. It had reason to believe that the predictive value of pipeline breakage probability was more accurate than some other models, because such comprehensive factors were taken into it. At last, the model was applied to the data collection area — one city of East China, and the analog value of pipeline breakage probability was obtained, which provided one kind of decision support for the pipeline project, so it should achieve optimization of pipeline maintenance and transformation.


ASCE Subject Headings:
Water supply
Water pipelines
Research
Failures
Probability