American Society of Civil Engineers


Estimation of Time for Wenchuan Earthquake Reconstruction in China


by Caiyu Sun, (Ph.D. Candidate, Institute of Emergency Management and Reconstruction in Post-disaster, Sichuan Univ., and Project Engineer, Dept. of Construction, Southwest Univ. for Nationalities, Chengdu, China. E-mail: caiyusun@swun.cn) and Jiuping Xu, (corresponding author), (Professor, Institute of Emergency Management and Reconstruction in Post-disaster, Sichuan Univ., Chengdu, China E-mail: xujiuping@scu.edu.cn)

Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 137, No. 3, March 2011, pp. 179-187, (doi:  http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000277)

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Document type: Journal Paper
Section Heading: Cost and Schedule
Abstract: Time is considered extremely urgent in China’s Wenchuan earthquake reconstruction. However, little research has been undertaken on estimating the time needed for reconstruction in China, especially for this specific reconstruction. Therefore, this paper aims to explore the time-cost relationship for the Wenchuan earthquake reconstruction. Both the Bromilow’s time-cost (BTC) model and the Elman network (EN) model have been developed to predict the time of Wenchuan earthquake reconstruction projects. Data have been obtained from 72 completed construction projects in the six cities that were seriously affected by the major Wenchuan earthquake. The result from the BTC model has been compared with that from the EN model to determine which one is more accurate. The results show that the EN model provides a more accurate time prediction for Wenchuan earthquake reconstruction than the BTC model does, though the BTC model is more suitable for application in practice. It is also shown that the proposed models are both useful for estimating the duration of reconstruction projects.


ASCE Subject Headings:
Costs
Project management
Earthquakes
China
Regression models

Author Keywords:
Wenchuan major earthquake
Wenchuan earthquake reconstruction
Time
Cost
Project management
Regression model
Elman network