American Society of Civil Engineers

Probabilistic Application in Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Structures

by Mohsen Javanpour, (M.Sc Structural Engineering, Iran. E-mail: and Panam Zarfam, (Ph.D Structural Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering Islamic Azad University Science and Research Branch Tehran, Iran. E-mail:
Section: Infrastructure Risk, Management, and Protection, pp. 252-259, (doi:

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Document type: Conference Proceeding Paper
Part of: Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Analysis, Modeling, and Management
Abstract: A formal probabilistic framework for seismic assessment of a structural system can be built around the expression for the probability of exceeding a limit state capacity, a measure of the reliability of system under seismic excitations. Common probabilistic tools are implemented in order to derive a simplified closed-form expression for the probability of exceeding a limit state capacity. This closed-from expression is particularly useful for seismic assessment and design of structures, taking into account the uncertainty in the generic variables, structural "demand" and "capacity" as well as the uncertainty in seismic excitations. This framework implements non linear dynamic analysis procedures in order to estimate variability in the response of the structure ("demand") to seismic excitations. Alternative methods for designing a program of nonlinear analyses and for applying the results of dynamic analysis, particularly as it relates to displacement-based "demand" and "capacity" estimation, are discussed.

ASCE Subject Headings:
Seismic effects
Structural systems