American Society of Civil Engineers


Climate Links and Variability of Extreme Sea-Level Events at Key West, Pensacola, and Mayport, Florida


by Joseph Park, P.E., (corresponding author), (Principal Scientist, Hydrologic and Environmental Systems Modeling, South Florida Water Management District, 3301 Gun Club Rd., West Palm Beach, FL 33401 E-mail: jpark@sfwmd.gov), Jayantha Obeysekera, P.E., M.ASCE, (Department Director, Hydrologic and Environmental Systems Modeling, South Florida Water Management District, 3301 Gun Club Rd., West Palm Beach, FL 33401. E-mail: jobey@sfwmd.gov), Michelle Irizarry-Ortiz, P.E., (Lead Hydrologic Modeler, Hydrologic and Environmental Systems Modeling, South Florida Water Management District, 3301 Gun Club Rd., West Palm Beach, FL 33401. E-mail: mirizar@sfwmd.gov), Jenifer Barnes, (Senior Hydrologic Modeler, Hydrologic and Environmental Systems Modeling, South Florida Water Management District, 3301 Gun Club Rd., West Palm Beach, FL 33401. E-mail: jabarne@sfwmd.gov), and Winifred Park-Said, (Science Supervisor, Hydrologic and Environmental Systems Modeling, South Florida Water Management District, 3301 Gun Club Rd., West Palm Beach, FL 33401. E-mail: wsaid@sfwmd.gov)

Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal and Ocean Engineering, Vol. 136, No. 6, November/December 2010, pp. 350-356, (doi:  http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WW.1943-5460.0000052)

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Document type: Technical Note
Abstract: Analysis of long-term coastal tide records at Key West, Pensacola, and Mayport, Fla. examines the variability of extreme high-water events. Linear trends of event water level at Key West and Pensacola support findings elsewhere that increases in extreme water level are consistent with increases in global mean sea level. A link between event variables and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is found at the Key West and Pensacola stations. Mayport does not exhibit such a link, likely the data are confounded by estuarine flows and oceanographic interactions with the St. Johns River. Quantile regressions and extreme value distributions suggest dynamic trends in the event variables at Key West and Pensacola as a function of AMO, indicating an increased variability in relation to linear models that should be of interest to coastal planners and forecasters.


ASCE Subject Headings:
Coastal processes
Climates
Storm surges
Infrastructure
Sea level
Florida

Author Keywords:
Coastal processes
Climates
Surge
Infrastructure