Energy Supply Constraints, Petroleum Imports, and Cost-Driven Growth: Evidence from Japan
by Yu Hong, (College of Humanities and Sciences, Northeast Normal University, 1488 Boshuo Road, Jing-yue Development Zone, Changchun, Jilin Province, 130117, China. E-mail: acjlhong@yahoo.com.cn) and Hongwei Su, (College of Humanities and Sciences, Northeast Normal University, 1488 Boshuo Road, Jing-yue Development Zone, Changchun, Jilin Province, 130117, China. E-mail: suhongwei127@sina.com)
Section: Volume I - Logistics Policy and Strategy, pp. 251-258, (doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/41139(387)37)
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| Document type: |
Conference Proceeding Paper |
| Part of: |
ICLEM 2010: Logistics For Sustained Economic Development: Infrastructure, Information, Integration |
| Abstract: |
This study examines the impact of oil imports on Japan’s economy. Using annual data from 1962 to 2008, we find a long-run equilibrium co-integrating relation among these non-stationary series. Short-run Granger non-causality tests based on vector error correction (VEC) model show that both the quantity of crude oil imports and Yen rates Granger cause the real GDP with positive effects. Moreover, the quantity of refined petroleum products imports is Granger caused by real GDP, quantity of crude oil imports and Yen rates; in the long-run, Granger causality runs from the equilibrium co integrating relationship to real GDP as well as to the import quantity of refined petroleum products. Strong erogeneity Wald tests reveal that in the long-run, all variables exert significant effects on real GDP. Further impulse response analysis shows that price shocks of both crude oil and refined petroleum products have positive long-run effects on Japanese economy, implying an endogenous technological progress under the strong constraints of energy supply. |
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