American Society of Civil Engineers


Community-Based, Macrolevel Collision Prediction Model Use with a Regional Transportation Plan


by Gord Lovegrove, (corresponding author), (Assistant Professor, School of Engineering, Faculty of Applied Science, Univ. of British Columbia Okanagan, 3333 University Way, Kelowna, BC, Canada, V1V-1V7 E-mail: gord.lovegrove@ubc.ca), Clark Lim, (Research Associate, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Applied Science, Univ. of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada, V6T 1Z4. E-mail: clim@acuere.ca), and Tarek Sayed, (Professor, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Applied Science, Univ. of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada, V6T 1Z4. E-mail: tsayed@civil.ubc.ca)

Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 136, No. 2, February 2010, pp. 120-128, (doi:  http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000081)

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Document type: Journal Paper
Section Heading: Transportation Systems
Abstract: This paper describes the application of previously developed community-based, macrolevel collision prediction models (CPMs) to evaluate the road safety of a regional transportation plan. The research objective was to present and test model-use guidelines in a regional road safety planning application. The data was extracted from over 400 Greater Vancouver neighborhoods in British Columbia, Canada, including output from the regional transportation model. The CPMs predicted a lower mean collision frequency region-wide due to a proposed three-year transportation plan, versus a do-nothing scenario. Recommendations have been made for future use of the CPMs in regional road safety planning applications. The application of macrolevel CPMs to this regional case study proved a solid step in the development of new and improved empirical tools for planners and engineers to include road safety in the planning process. It is hoped that these models and model-use guidelines will facilitate improved decisions by community planners and engineers, and ultimately, facilitate improved neighborhood traffic safety for residents and other road users.


ASCE Subject Headings:
Traffic accidents
Data analysis
Transportation management
Traffic safety
Traffic models

Author Keywords:
Accident data
Macro-level
Collision prediction models
Transportation planning
Regional transportation plan
Road safety planning
Safety conscious planning
Sustainable road safety
Crashes