American Society of Civil Engineers


Hydrologic Effects of Climate Change in the Yukon River Basin


by L. E. Hay, (U.S. Geological Survey, Denver Federal Center, MS 412, Denver, Colorado 80225 E-mail: gmccabe@usgs.gov) and G. J. McCabe, (U.S. Geological Survey, Denver Federal Center, MS 412, Denver, Colorado 80225 E-mail: gmccabe@usgs.gov)

pp. 1-10, (doi:  http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/40976(316)269)

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Document type: Conference Proceeding Paper
Part of: World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2008: Ahupua’A
Abstract: A monthly water balance (WB) model was developed for the Yukon River Basin (YRB). The WB model was calibrated using mean monthly values of precipitation and temperature derived from the Precipitation-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data set and by comparing estimated mean monthly runoff with runoff measured at Pilot Station, Alaska. Potential hydrologic effects of climate change were assessed for the YRB by imposing changes in precipitation and temperature derived from selected Inter-governmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) climate simulations. Scenarios from five general circulation model (GCM) simulations were used to provide a range of potential changes. Results from the scenarios indicate an increase in annual runoff in the 21st century for the YRB with simulated increases in precipitation having the greatest effect on increases in runoff. Simulated increases in temperature were found to alter the timing of snow accumulation and melt.


ASCE Subject Headings:
Alaska
Canada
Climate change
Hydrology
River basins