American Society of Civil Engineers

Voyage Estimate and Decision-Making on the Tramp Operation

by HuaLong Yang, (Ph. D, Associate Professor, Shipping Management College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, 116026, P. R. China.) and PeiJun Yang, (No affiliation information available.)
Section: Transportation Planning and Optimization, pp. 705-709, (doi:

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Document type: Conference Proceeding Paper
Part of: Traffic and Transportation Studies
Abstract: This paper points out the problems in existing voyage estimate on a tramp operation. By lots of statistics and investigation works, it analyzes the probability of winds within a certain sailing area as well as its influence over a vessel’s voyage. The probability distribution of a vessel encountering winds k times in a voyage are testified and the expected per day net revenue value of a voyage is calculated. Then, the paper further puts forward the decision-making problems in a vessel’s voyage and analyzes its main influencing factors. Thus, the hierarchy structure and its judgement matrix are established and lead to the adoption of the AHP method on a vessel’s voyage. The results of real examples prove to be reliable and realistic.

ASCE Subject Headings:
Water transportation
Trip forecasting
Decision making