Stochastic Population Projection at Design Level

by Peter M. Meier, Sr. Systems Analyst; Curran Assoc., Inc., Engrs. and Planners, Northampton, MA,


Serial Information: Journal of the Sanitary Engineering Division, 1972, Vol. 98, Issue 6, Pg. 883-896


Document Type: Journal Paper

Discussion: Shahane Ashok N. (See full record)
Discussion: Silberman David J. (See full record)
Discussion: Viraraghavan Thiruvenkatachari (See full record)
Closure: (See full record)

Abstract: A method for stochastic population projection for small areas is developed for use by consulting engineers as a basis for specifying the design capacity of pollution control facilities. Based on the components-of-change model for population growth and a formulation of demographic rates as first-order autoregressive processes, the proposed projection model specifies future population in terms of a probability distribution. Monte Carlo simulation rather than analytical solution is used to derive the probabilities. An analysis of the first results suggests a significant improvement in predictive accuracy over the traditional subjective or deterministic projection models still in widespread use by the environmental engineering profession.

Subject Headings: Population projection | Stochastic processes | Autoregressive models | Model accuracy | Consulting services | Engineering profession | Building design | Europe | Monaco | Monte Carlo

Services: Buy this book/Buy this article

 

Return to search