Some Problems with Log-Normal Markov Runoff Models

by Stephen J. Burges, Asst. Prof. of Civ. Engrg.; Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA,


Serial Information: Issue 9, Pg. 1487-1496


Document Type: Journal Paper

Abstract:

Two methods for estimating the parameters of log-normally distributed runoff volumes employed in a lag one Markov model were investigated. In the first method the parameters were determined from the logarithms of the observed record. In the second method parameters were determined directly, by a method of moments, from the untransformed record. Both annual and monthly generation models were studied. Parameters for the flow record of Arroyo Seco, Soledad, CA, were estimated by both methods. Sequences were generated for both sets of parameters and used in a typical application—a storage reservoir capacity study. Storage requirements determined from these two sequences differed significantly.

Subject Headings: Parameters (statistics) | Probability distribution | Runoff | Markov process | Hydrologic models | Moment (mechanics) | Water storage | Reservoirs | California

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