Sensitivity Analysis of Douglas Equipment Life Model

by Neal B. H. Benjamin, Asst. Prof.; Dept. of Civ. Engrg., Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO,

Serial Information: Journal of the Construction Division, 1972, Vol. 98, Issue 1, Pg. 61-78

Document Type: Journal Paper

Errata: (See full record)


The Douglas Model is a complex mathematical model used to determine the optimal economic life of construction equipment. It has a large number of input parameters. Many of the input parameters are based on predictions of uncertain future events. Monte Carlo simulation was used to study the sensitivity of the Douglas Model to random errors in the determination of the input parameters. The uncertainty of the parameters was assumed to be described by normal and beta probability distributions, and 100 simulations were made for each of the assumed distributions. It is concluded that the Douglas Model is not too sensitive to random variation of the input parameters.

Subject Headings: Sensitivity analysis | Model analysis | Equipment and machinery | Parameters (statistics) | Lifeline systems | Mathematical models | Probability distribution | Errors (statistics) | Construction equipment | Economic factors | Europe | Monaco | Monte Carlo

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