Predicting Droughts for the South Platte River Systemby Chen-hua Chung,
Jose D. Salas,
Abstract: In this paper we apply probability theory and stochastic processes to determine drought properties, particularly drought duration. Spccilicslly, we model the sequences of wet and dry years by using discrete autoregressive (DAR) and discrete autoregressive moving average (DARMA) processes. Then we apply a conqmtational scheme to determine the probability distribution of the occurrence time ofdroughts of specifkd durations. More importantly we determine the return periods of particular drought events, for instance the return period of a drought g-years long, and the risk that droughts longer or equal to 9 years will occur in the future. The analysis has been extended to determine droughts based 0x1 monthly streamflow data.
Subject Headings: Droughts | Stochastic processes | Autoregressive moving average models | Probability distribution | Risk management | Streamflow | Data analysis
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