An Economy and Risk Analysis of Installed Capacity Expansion at the Three Gorges Power Plantby Liping Wang,
Abstract: This paper studies the possibility and economy of peak-regulation operation during flood period at the Three Gorges reservoir, which will at the same time satisfy the requirements for comprehensive utilization such as flood control, sediment sluicing and navigation, and proposes that if the installed capacity of the Three Gorges Power Plant is to be expanded from the designed 18.2 million kw to 22.4 million kw, the non-regulation operation of the power plant will become regulation operation, thus increasing greatly the capacity benefits of the power plant, and trengthening the operation flexibility and economy of the power system. Because of the Three Gorges Projects enormous dimension, wide scope of influence and numerous uncertain (risk) factors involved, this paper presents a model for economy risk analysis on the basis of the maximum entropy in accordance with the information entropy principle, and derives the probability density distribution function of six major economic indexes which are of the minimum prejudice, and based on the distribution function established, an economic risk analysis is made for the Three Gorges Project.
Subject Headings: Power plants | Risk management | Economic factors | Floods | Entropy methods | Probability distribution | Reservoirs
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