Integrated Hydrological/Ecological/Economic Modeling for Examining the Vulnerability of Water Resources to Climate Changeby John P. Kochendorfer,
Jorge A. Ramirez,
Abstract: A methodology for assessing regional-scale hydrologic vulnerability to climate variability which incorporates ecologic and economic factors is presented. A simple economic model of damages due to hydrologic drought and the decision to invest in augmented yield to mitigate these damages is coupled to a statistical-dynamical, soil-vegetation-climate model of the annual water balance (Eagleson 1978). The coupling is through the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of annual basin yield as estimated by the Eagleson model. Using Bayesian concepts for optimal decision-making under uncertainty, uncertainty in the yield CDF is propagated through the drought damage model to the hypothetical investment decision.
Subject Headings: Hydrologic models | Economic factors | Climate change | Droughts | Coupling | Uncertainty principles | Water resources
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