Using Probabilistic Balancing Rules in the Development of Multi-Purpose Multi-Reservoir Systems Operation Modelsby Emmanuel U. Nzewi, (A.M.ASCE),
Abstract: This paper focuses on the development of short-term (real-time) reservoir operation strategies by the incorporation of Probabilistic Balancing Rules (PBR). Probabilistic Balancing Rule (PBR) models do not include the usual economic elements or their surrogates in the development of operational strategies. Instead, a set of probabilistic rules which seek to probabilistically balance operational levels are substituted in their development. PBR models have been shown in a number of studies to be effective in the development of good real-time reservoir operation models. A motivation for the use of PBR models is presented. This motivation is developed by considering an inventory theory problem called the Newsboy or Christmas Tree problem. This motivation is important because it provides some analytical basis for the effectiveness of PBR models. This is especially necessary since the PBR approach has not been widely used in the development of reservoir operations models. The extension of the PBR approach to multi-reservoir configurations is briefly discussed.
Subject Headings: Reservoirs | Probability | Model analysis | Hydrologic models | Motivation | Economic factors | Inventories | Trees
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