Annual Delivery Decisions in the Simulation of the California State Water Project and Federal Central Valley Project using DWRSIMby Robert T. Leaf, (M.ASCE),
Sushil K. Arora, (M.ASCE),
Abstract: This paper presents a new annual contractor delivery determination procedure for the California Department of Water Resources' State Water Project (SWP) and Central Valley Project (CVP) system planning model: DWRSIM. The procedure attempts to mimic the delivery decision process the department uses in operating the SWP. The procedure uses the calendar year as the delivery timeframe in which estimates of the annual delivery are based on water system storage and runoff forecasts. Delivery decisions are made on 1-January of each year and updated each month until 1-May, at which time the delivery level is fixed for the remaining seven months. Increasing firmness of decisions is achieved by varying forecast exceedence levels and using a no-reduction rule. Decisions are based explicitly on runoff forecasts and storage levels, but implicitly incorporate unknown factors that influence the decision process. These factors may include: water quality and flow standards for, and restrictions on exports from, the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta; water system facilities, level of hydrology; and the anticipated error range of forecasts. Two relationships are used in making delivery decisions: a user-defined Delivery versus Carryover Risk Curve, and a Water Supply Index versus Demand Index relationship. Using forecast data, incorporating Delta constraints and standardizing the modeled decision process are distinct benefits of this procedure.
Subject Headings: Forecasting | Federal government | Water management | Water resources | Data processing | Water quality | Hydrologic models | Runoff | Waste storage | Water storage | North America | California | United States
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