Coastal Eutrophication and Temperature Variation

by Jacques Ganoulis, Aristotle Univ of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece,
Stilianos Rafailidis, Aristotle Univ of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece,
Istvan Bogardi, Aristotle Univ of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece,
Lucien Duckstein, Aristotle Univ of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece,
Istvan Matyasovszky, Aristotle Univ of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Risk-Based Decision Making in Water Resources VI

Abstract:

A 3-D hydroecological model has been developed to simulate the impact of climate-change-induced daily temperature variation on coastal water quality and eutrophication. Historical daily temperature time series over a thirty-year period have been used to link local meteorological variables to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs). Then, CPs generated under a 2?CO₂ scenario have been used to simulate climate-change-induced local daily temperature variations. Both historical and climate-change-induced temperature time series have been introduced as inputs into the hydroecological model to simulate coastal water quality and eutrophication. Subject to model validation with available data, a case study in the bay of Thessaloniki (N. Greece) indicates a risk of increasing eutrophication and oxygen depletion in coastal areas due to possible climate change.

Subject Headings: Water quality | Temperature effects | Three-dimensional models | Sea water | Eutrophication | Time series analysis | Mathematical models | Greece | Europe

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