Uncertainty versus Computer Response Time

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by William D. Rowe, Automation Research Systems, Ltd, Alexandria, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Risk-Based Decision Making in Water Resources VI:

Abstract: Interactive on-line presentation of risk analysis results with immediate `what if' capability is now possible with available microcomputer technology. This can provide an effective means of presenting the risk results, the decision possibilities, and the underlying assumptions to decision makers, stakeholders, and the public. However, the limitation of computer calculational power on microcomputers requires a trade-off between the precision of the analysis and the computing and display response time. Fortunately, the uncertainties in the risk analysis are usually so large that extreme precision is often unwarranted. Therefore, risk analyses used for this purpose must include trade-offs between precision and processing time, and uncertainties introduced must be put into perspective.

Subject Headings: Risk management | Computer analysis | Uncertainty principles | Data processing | Computer aided operations | Decision making | Public health and safety |

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