Probabilistic Characterization of Droughts

by G. V. Loganathan, (M.ASCE), Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, United States,
S. Mostaghimi, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, United States,
V. K. Lohani, (S.M.ASCE), Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, United States,
M. K. Tchaou, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, United States,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Water Policy and Management: Solving the Problems

Abstract:

The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) uses a set of meteorologic and hydrologic variables to create a numerical value for drought severity. The index values are grouped into drought severity classes. This grouping is used in formulating a non-homogeneous Markov chain approach for characterizing the drought stochastic process. This approach helps to identify the drought prone geographical regions, persisting drought classes, periods of return to a particular drought class, and yields short term predictions.

Subject Headings: Droughts | Markov process | Stochastic processes | Probability | Meteorology | Hydrology | Numerical methods

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