The Hazard In Using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

by Ellis L. Krinitzsky, Sr. Res. Scientist; Geotechnical Laboratory, U.S. Army Engr. Waterways Experiment Station, 3909 Halls Ferry Rd., (CEWES-GV-Z), Vicksburg, MS 39180-6199,

Serial Information: Civil Engineering—ASCE, 1993, Vol. 63, Issue 11, Pg. 60-61

Document Type: Feature article

Abstract: Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been used extensively for major dams; nuclear power plants; liquefied petroleum gas installations; repositories for dangerous wastes; sensitive industrial, business and defense installations; fire stations; schools and hospitals. However, a large body of evidence shows seismic probability theory to be defective for estimating earthquakes greater than magnitude 5.0. It is time to reexamine the current, almost total, acceptance of seismic probability for the engineering of critical structures.

Subject Headings: Seismic effects | Probability | Reliability | Predictions | Earthquakes |

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