Probability of Bridge Failure Due to Scouringby Wolfgang Kron, Univ of Karlsruhe, Germany,
Erich Plate, Univ of Karlsruhe, Germany,
Abstract: Models to estimate depth of scour at bridge piers and abutments are available in many forms,but all of them are based on constant discharges. Their results vary widely and engineering judgement is required when choosing the adequate scour model and the necessary depth of the foundation. One reason for the variability is the time dependency of the scouring process and of the discharge. The time function representing scour is simulated with a simple model consisting of three parts: a) computation of the maximum scour Y* s b) time function to reach Y*s and c) recovery of the scour. All parts can be varied easily. The flow input is based on long series of generated daily discharges. Results are analyzed statistically and interpreted with methods of reliability theory. Probability of failure form the time series of the depth of scour is compared to the exceedance probability of the design flow.
Subject Headings: Scour | Bridge failures | Probability | Bridge abutments | Computer models | Failure analysis | Erosion | Structural models
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