Prediction of Occurrence and Runoff Analysis of Debris Flowby Muneo Hirano, Kyushu Univ, Fukuoka, Japan,
Toshiyuki Moriyama, Kyushu Univ, Fukuoka, Japan,
Abstract: A debris flow will occur on a slope when the rainfall exceeds a certain value determined by the hydraulic, geological and topographic properties of the slope. To estimate this critical value. the system analysis technique appears to be useful. In this study, a neural-networks model was used to predict the occurrence of debris flow. Reliability of the method was verified by applying to the debris flows in Unzen Volcano which recently has begun to erupt. Equation of debris flow runoff was derived by solving the basic equations using the kinematic wave theory. It is found from the derived equation that the runoff intensity of debris flow is in proportion to the rainfall intensity and cumulative rainfall, jointly. This gives a theoretical basis to the conventional method which has been widely used.
Subject Headings: Solids flow | Debris | System analysis | Runoff | Kinematic waves | Rainfall-runoff relationships | Surface waves | Slopes
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