Stochastic Modelling of Mean Monthly Runoffs for Coruh Basin, Turkey

by N. Merzi, Middle East Technical Univ, Ankara, Turkey,
N. Usul, Middle East Technical Univ, Ankara, Turkey,
Z. Ozsaracoglu, Middle East Technical Univ, Ankara, Turkey,
V. Ozaydin, Middle East Technical Univ, Ankara, Turkey,
M. Molu, Middle East Technical Univ, Ankara, Turkey,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Engineering Hydrology

Abstract:

Stochastic models of monthly runoffs for Coruh basin, Turkey are presented. Coruh basin is located on the northeast part of Anatolia near Black Sea. Three gauging stations which have about 20 years of record are located on the main stream. All three models are identified as autoregressive processes; the upstream and downstream stations are AR(1) models, the one in between is AR(3) model. The stochastic components are found to be mainly dominated by first-order persistence terms such as 0.55. Fifty synthetic series are generated; their statistical characteristics are compared with those of the historical series. Forecasts for one year are obtained in between 95% confidence intervals.

Subject Headings: Autoregressive models | Stochastic processes | Runoff | Basins | Mathematical models | Gaging stations | Developing countries | Turkey | Asia | Middle East | Black Sea

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