Streamflow Forecasting for the Bradley Lake Project

by Gerald J. Nibler, Natl Weather Service, Anchorage, United States,
Eric A. Anderson, Natl Weather Service, Anchorage, United States,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Engineering Hydrology

Abstract:

The National Weather Service (NWS) uses a suite of software called NWS River Forecast System (NWSRFS) for operational river stage and streamflow forecasting. NWSRFS is a modular system consisting of subsystems for 1) operational forecasting, 2) calibration and 3) extended streamflow prediction. Each of these subsystems shares conceptual hydrologic and hydraulic models for soil moisture accounting, snow accumulation and ablation, flood wave routing, and reservoir condition. The extended streamflow prediction (ESP) program is used to produce medium and longer range forecasts. This paper gives a brief overview of the ESP Monte-Carlo simulation technique for forecasting the Bradley Lake drainage on the Kenai Peninsula in Southcentral Alaska. Application of ESP to the Bradley Lake basin was complicated by a lack of usual data sources for calibration and the existence of large permanent snowfields and glaciers. The strategy for implementing the modules within NWSRFS to account for the glaciated areas on the Bradley River drainage are described. The robustness of the ESP technique was apparent in spite of historical data problems that affected the calibration of the models for the basin.

Subject Headings: Forecasting | Streamflow | Computer models | Hydrologic models | Hydraulic models | Flood routing | Monte Carlo method | Alaska | United States

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