Distribution of Flood Volumes Beyond Design Dischargesby Arie Ben-Zvi, Israel Hydrological Service, Jerusalem, Israel,
Abstract: Quantitative prediction of flood volumes beyond design discharges is important for hydrologic design of river constructions, such as bridges and culverts, because these are the volumes which accumulate upstream from the constrictions and inflict damages. The prediction can be made through the various distributions and methods which are currently applied in hydrology. The present work does it through the partial duration series approach, where the attention is concentrated on large values. Observed trends of the upper tails are considered as predictors for probable larger volumes. The trends are defined in accordance with tail thicknesses, determined from displays of cumulative mean exceedances against threshold volumes. Diverse trends are found for a case study of 8 rivers with 6 design discharges per river. The Generalized Paerto distribution has been selected for description of the magnitudes because of its flexibility with respect to tail thickness. Good fits are found for all the rivers. The best fit for each combination of river and design discharge is recommended for application.
Subject Headings: Rivers and streams | Hydraulic design | Water discharge | Floods | Bridge design | Hydrology | Culverts | Thickness
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