The North Black Sea and the Sea of Azov Coasts Under a Possible Greenhouse-Induced Global Sea-Level Riseby P. A. Kaplin, Moscow Univ, Moscow, Russia,
A. V. Porotov, Moscow Univ, Moscow, Russia,
A. O. Selivanov, Moscow Univ, Moscow, Russia,
N. V. Yesin, Moscow Univ, Moscow, Russia,
Abstract: The first attempt is presented to compile a map of coastal evolution of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov under the possible accelerated greenhouse-induced sea-level rise by 1m (medium scenario) and 4 m (high scenario) until 2100. The modified Brunn Rule, as well as our own model and paleogeographic analogs, are used to quantify shoreline migration. Most of the coastal accumulative bodies, namely liman barriers on the north-western Black Sea coast, tombolos and spits on the Sea of Azov would be partially destructed under the medium scenario, whereas high scenario anticipate their total disappearance. The Kuban River delta, Perekop Isthmus and some other regions would exert catastrophic inundation potentiated by intensive tectonic subsidence. General acceleration in recession of coastal erosional scraps composed of losses and sands could possibly disastrous near Odessa, Mariupol, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk Cities.
Subject Headings: Sea level | Coastal environment | Mapping | Shoreline | Spits (landform) | Shoals | Analogs | Black Sea | Sea of Azov
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