Projecting Land Use/Transportation Interactionsby Kimberly V. Davis, Northern Virginia Planning District, Commission, Annandale, United States,
Troy Abel, Northern Virginia Planning District, Commission, Annandale, United States,
Abstract: The inherent uncertainty in forecasting the interaction between transportation capacity and induced development has resulted in insufficient analysis of this dynamic in the transportation profession. As a result of a successful lawsuit in the Northern California Circuit Court, CBE et al. v. Deukmajian, the modeling industry is struggling to respond to this challenge. While dynamic forecasting techniques may be similarly fraught with uncertainty, we cannot ignore that demand for a facility will not remain static whether or not it is built. This paper will outline the case law precedent that is radically changing the technical basis for our transportation decision-making; discuss the policy context and implications of the challenges facing the transportation modeling community; describe some of the current 'best practices' in interactive land use/transportation modeling; and propose some exogenous input assumptions for forecasting modeling; and propose some exogenous input assumptions for forecasting (a quick fix) that may address the requirements in the short term in a cost effective manner, while better informing the decision-making process.
Subject Headings: Forecasting | Mathematical models | Decision making | Dynamic analysis | Uncertainty principles | Professional development | Transportation studies | Litigation | North America | California | United States
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