Use of a Statistical Model to Forecast Future Wastewater Flows

by Erick Heath, James M. Montgomery, Consulting Engineers, Inc, Sacramento, United States,
John Calmer, James M. Montgomery, Consulting Engineers, Inc, Sacramento, United States,
William Maddaus, James M. Montgomery, Consulting Engineers, Inc, Sacramento, United States,
Jack Weber, James M. Montgomery, Consulting Engineers, Inc, Sacramento, United States,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Water Management in the '90s: A Time for Innovation

Abstract: Future wastewater flows are generally predicted based upon an assumed rate of population and industry growth within a treatment facility's area of influence. In a community with limited growth, factors outside of population increases may have a greater impact on the quantity of future flows. South Lake Tahoe is a recreational area and experiences flow variations of 2:1 for summer versus winter flows. Therefore a statistical model was developed to evaluate relative impacts of contributions from many factors to changes in flows received at the treatment facility. Conclusions were reached by performing a sensitivity analysis on the factors which contributed significantly to the flows predicted by the model. A statistical model was created for the South Tahoe Public Utility District (District) using historical data. It was intended that a variable, or a combination of variables, would be found that would have a high degree of correlation with the flows. Anticipated changes in the variables could then be used to predict expected changes in the magnitude of future flows.

Subject Headings: Statistics | Sensitivity analysis | Industrial wastes | Wastewater treatment | Population projection | Lakes | Data processing | Lifeline systems

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