Sensitivity Analyses for Total-System Performance Assessment

by Michael L. Wilson, Sandia Natl Lab, Albuquerque, United States,

Abstract: As a follow-on to Sandia's 1991 preliminary total-system performance assessment of the Yuc1ca Mountain site, this paper presents results of some sensitivity analyses that were done using results from the 1991 study. Two conceptual models of unsaturated-zone flow and transport at Yucca Mountain were included in the study, including both aqueous and gaseous releases. The sensitivities are quite different for the two models. For the composite-porosity model, the results are most sensitive to groundwater percolation flux, gaseous transport time, container lifetime, and fuel-matrix-alteration rate. For the weeps model, the results are most sensitive to parameters used to characterize fracture flow (fracture aperture and fracture connectivity) and infiltration (percolation flux and weep-episode factor).

Subject Headings: Sensitivity analysis | Groundwater pollution | Hydrologic models | Groundwater flow | Model analysis | Radioactive wastes | Percolation | Cracking

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