Probabilistic Analysis of Faulting Associated with Earthquakes for Nuclear Waste Repositoriesby Gabriel R. Toro, Risk Engineering, Inc, Golden, United States,
Abstract: The probabilistic analysis of seismogenic faulting follows the same general methodology as the more common seismic hazard analysis for shaking. The main difference lies in the influence model that describes the effects at the site, given the occurrence of an earthquake of a certain magnitude at a certain location. This paper describes the various elements of a probabilistic model of seismogenic faulting and its effect on the waste canisters, the required inputs, and sources of data. The exposition will highlight the similarities between faulting and shaking studies (where a wide body of experience is available), as well as the differences (where the assumptions may have to be refined or new models may have to be developed).
Subject Headings: Probability | Seismic tests | Seismic effects | Geological faults | Model analysis | Radioactive wastes | Earthquakes
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