Risk Based Decision Support Model for Water Delivery Systems Subject to Natural Hazardsby M. A. Cassaro, Univ of Louisville, Louisville, United States,
M. J. Cassaro, Univ of Louisville, Louisville, United States,
R. K. Ragade, Univ of Louisville, Louisville, United States,
S. Alexander, Univ of Louisville, Louisville, United States,
Abstract: This paper presents a prototype model for analysis of potential damage and risk to water company systems in regions subject to earthquakes. Other hazards that produce loss to water distribution systems include: cold temperatures, floods, high wind, and tornado. Damage and loss produced by these events are incorporated into a risk model that considers repair and replacement cost, consideration of down time and loss due to reduced flow below demand levels. The model incorporates GIS, expert systems, and knowledge base tools to create a risk management tool that is capable of being updated with recent natural hazard records while maintaining current information on water system delivery facilities. A component of the model permits analysis of system effects for emergency response following a hazard event. Input of field observation of system damage during a natural hazard event permits flow analysis and supports decisions for setting priorities for repair.
Subject Headings: Risk management | Natural disasters | Water supply systems | Expert systems | Hydrologic models | Information systems | Decision support systems | Geographic information systems
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