The Role of Risk Analysis in Feasibility Studies of Water Resources Projectsby Alvin S. Goodman, Polytechnic Univ, Brooklyn, United States,
Lampros E. Bourodimos, Polytechnic Univ, Brooklyn, United States,
Albert Machlin, Polytechnic Univ, Brooklyn, United States,
Abstract: Many parameters involved in feasibility studies of water resources projects are inherently uncertain. Projections of these parameters based upon extension of past trends can be quite inaccurate. Sensitivity and risk analysis are appropriate methods when making estimates of the more common parameters needed for economic analysis. A suitable and accepted methodology has not, however, been developed to account for unforeseen changes or events, such as those that result from technological changes, improvements in knowledge, and unprecedented natural events.
Subject Headings: Water resources | Risk management | Feasibility studies | Sensitivity analysis | Parameters (statistics) | Project management | Resource management | Economic factors
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