Cross-Impact Analysis for Lifeline Interactions

by Nobuoto Nojima, Kyoto Univ, Kyoto, Japan,
Hiroyuki Kameda, Kyoto Univ, Kyoto, Japan,

Abstract: A probabilistic method to evaluate the seismic risk of urban lifeline network systems is presented with emphasis on the interactive aspects of lifeline earthquake disaster. First, the outline of interaction-related problem in lifeline earthquake disaster is summarized in a comprehensive table. Next, with the understanding that functional dependence among lifelines causes a significant interaction in the event of earthquake, focus is placed on two-systems model in the light of functional dependence of a lifeline system on the other. The probability of system malfunction caused by damage interaction in addition to the damage to the system itself is assessed. Through this, system interaction is quantified on a probability basis as a single parameter, in terms of the 'cross impact factor'. An illustrative numerical example is presented.

Subject Headings: Probability | Earthquakes | Gas pipelines | Pipe networks | Seismic effects

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