Analysis of Ground-Shaking Hazard and Risk for Lifeline Systemsby Kenneth W. Campbell, Dames & Moore, Evergreen, United States,
Abstract: This paper describes deterministic and probabilistic procedures for calculating ground-shaking hazard and risk for lifeline systems. Due to the large real extent of these systems, standard techniques for calculating seismic risk cannot be used. Instead, system performance must be evaluated for individual earthquakes from ground motions estimated at the locations of each system component. These performance states, together with their corresponding probabilities of occurrence, can then be used to construct a seismic risk curve for the system. Standard deterministic and probabilistic procedures can be used to calculate ground-shaking hazard and risk for individual lifeline components, since these calculations do not require a knowledge of system performance. The ASCE Technical Council on Lifeline Earthquake Engineering has recently completed a project demonstrating the various methods for assessing the seismic risks associated with a hypothetical water system. The results of that project are used as an illustrative example of the analytical procedures described in this paper.
Subject Headings: Seismic effects | Ground motion | Lifeline systems | Seismic tests | Probability | Risk management | Earthquakes | Water supply systems
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