Hydroproject Risk Analysisby Robert U. Murdock, St. Anthony Falls Hydraulic Lab, United States,
John S. Gulliver, St. Anthony Falls Hydraulic Lab, United States,
Abstract: Traditionally, feasibility studies performed for potential hydropower sites have included either no uncertainty or at best an ad hoc value associated with estimated benefits. However, formal methods for analyzing uncertainty do exist and have been outlined in the past. An application of these methods is demonstrated through conversion of a hydropower survey program, HYFEAS, to run on LOTUS 1-2-3, using the add-in software package RISK. The program principals are outlined and a case study of it's application to a hydropower site is presented.
Subject Headings: Risk management | Hydro power | Computer software | Feasibility studies | Uncertainty principles | Case studies | Surveying methods | Power plants
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