Hydroproject Risk Analysis

by Robert U. Murdock, St. Anthony Falls Hydraulic Lab, United States,
John S. Gulliver, St. Anthony Falls Hydraulic Lab, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Waterpower '91: A New View of Hydro Resources


Traditionally, feasibility studies performed for potential hydropower sites have included either no uncertainty or at best an ad hoc value associated with estimated benefits. However, formal methods for analyzing uncertainty do exist and have been outlined in the past. An application of these methods is demonstrated through conversion of a hydropower survey program, HYFEAS, to run on LOTUS 1-2-3, using the add-in software package RISK. The program principals are outlined and a case study of it's application to a hydropower site is presented.

Subject Headings: Computer software | Economic factors | Feasibility studies | Risk management | Hydro power | Site investigation | Uncertainty principles

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