Uncertainty Analysis of Preclosure Accident Doses for the Yucca Mountain Repository

by C. W. Ma, Bechtel Natl Inc, San Francisco, United States,
D. D. Miller, Bechtel Natl Inc, San Francisco, United States,
S. J. Zavoshy, Bechtel Natl Inc, San Francisco, United States,
L. J. Jardine, Bechtel Natl Inc, San Francisco, United States,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: High Level Radioactive Waste Management 1991

Abstract: This study presents a generic methodology that can be used to evaluate the uncertainty in the calculated accidental offsite doses at the Yucca Mountain repository during the preclosure period. For demonstration purposes, this methodology is applied to two specific accident scenarios: the first involves a crane dropping an open container with consolidated fuel rods, the second involves container failure during emplacement or removal operations. The uncertainties of thirteen parameters are quantified by various types of probability distributions. The Latin Hypercube Sampling method is used to evaluate the uncertainty of the offsite dose. For the crane-drop scenario with concurrent filter failure, the doses due to the release of airborne fuel particles are calculated to be 0.019, 0.32, and 2.8 rem at confidence levels of 10%, 50%, and 90%, respectively. For the container failure scenario with concurrent filter failure, the 90% confidence-level dose is 0.21 rem.

Subject Headings: Uncertainty principles | Radioactive wastes | Failure analysis | Accidents | Cranes | Container shipping | Fuels | Filters

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