Forecasting Behavioral Response to a Repository from Stated Intent Databy D. Easterling, Univ of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, United States,
H. Kunreuther, Univ of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, United States,
V. Morwitz, Univ of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, United States,
Abstract: To forecast repository-induced behavior from surveys of behavioral intention, we develop a model of the relation between stated intent and actual propensity. This model relies heavily on the notion of a latent true intent score. We also consider a number of factors that cause true intent to be, on average, a biased indicator of propensity. The forecasting strategy is applied to a survey of convention planners to estimate the proportion of conventions that Las Vegas would lose following various repository scenarios.
Subject Headings: Forecasting | Geomatic surveys | Radioactive wastes | Filters | Nevada | Las Vegas | North America | United States
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