Characterization Uncertainty and its Effects on Models and Performanceby C. A. Rautman, Sandia Natl Lab, Albuquerque, United States,
A. H. Treadway, Sandia Natl Lab, Albuquerque, United States,
Abstract: Geostatistical simulation is being used to develop multiple geologic models of rock properties at the proposed Yucca Mountain repository site. Because each replicate model contains the same known information, and is thus essentially indistinguishable statistically from others, the differences between models may be thought of as representing the uncertainty in the site description. The variability among performance measures, such as ground water travel time, calculated using these replicate models therefore quantifies the uncertainty in performance that arises from uncertainty in site characterization.
Subject Headings: Geology | Rock properties | Mathematical models | Simulation models | Radioactive wastes | Uncertainty principles | Travel time | Hydrologic models
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