Effects of Uncertainties in Component Fragilities on Lifeline Seismic Risk Analysisby Robin K. McGuire, Risk Engineering Inc, Golden, United States,
Abstract: Accurate calculation of the seismic risk for lifelines requires modeling the system as a function of its components, and requires accurate modeling of two engineering factors: (1) the spatial variability of earthquake ground motion including the ground motion correlation structure, and (2) the variability and correlation of component fragility functions. These conclusions are illustrated by evaluating the seismic performance of the Alameda, California, water distribution system for a range of earthquakes on the Hayward fault. A complete lifeline seismic risk analysis can account for the redundancy in a lifeline system design, but evaluating the benefits of that redundancy accurately requires modeling the correlation of responses of system components.
Subject Headings: Seismic effects | Seismic tests | Lifeline systems | Model accuracy | Ground motion | Risk management | Uncertainty principles | Correlation | Seismic design | Structural models | North America | California | United States
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