Bayesian Decision Theory and Fuzzy Sets Theory in Systems Operationby Mohammad Karamouz, Pratt Inst, United States,
Abstract: Operation of Water Resources Systems involves complex set of human decision. Many of the parameters involved in systems operations are random functions of time. Sometimes, the data needed is inadequate and inaccurate which introduces a very significant degree of uncertainty in the model. Furthermore, in the course of developing a model we come across subjective information with a very large degree of imprecision and with different linguistic impressions. In this paper, attempts have been made to differentiate between uncertainty and imprecision and to realize certain similarities and ambiguities in the use of two terms. Application of Bayesian Decision Theory and Fuzzy Sets Theory are also discussed.
Subject Headings: Water resources | Uncertainty principles | Data processing | Bayesian analysis | Fuzzy sets | Human factors | Parameters (statistics) | Information management
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