Predicting Watermain Breakage Rates

by I. Goulter, Univ of Manitoba, Canada,
J. Davidson, Univ of Manitoba, Canada,
P. Jacobs, Univ of Manitoba, Canada,

Abstract: Recent studies on water main breakage have shown significant spatial and temporal clustering in the breakage pattern. The methodology described in the paper provides the basis for a prediction model in which breakage rate increases with age of pipe and also increases at a particular location, following the occurrence of a previous failure in the immediate spatial or temporal vicinity. The breakage rate then decreases quickly, with increasing temporal or spatial distance from the failure, back down to the base time breakage rate consistent with the age of the pipe. The Poisson probability distribution forms the basis of the methodology.

Subject Headings: Pipelines | Water supply systems | Pipe failures | Failure analysis | Hydraulic models | Mathematical models | Probability | Probability distribution

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