Transportation Cask Life Cycle Cost Uncertainty Analysisby Spyridon Tzemos, Battelle, United States,
Abstract: This paper demonstrates an uncertainty analysis methodology using random sampling. This methodology has been applied to a nuclear waste transportation code, and several transportation parameters were studied. These parameters were ranked in terms of their contribution to the uncertainty of the total cost. The frequency distributions of the input parameters and corresponding outputs were plotted, and the sensitivity of the output uncertainty to variations of the input uncertainty was noted for each variable. The results showed that by far, the largest contributor to uncertainty is the 'cask capacity,' followed by 'processing time at reactors' for rail and by 'distances' for truck. The output frequency distribution plots showed a lumpiness generated by the discreteness of the cask size. The lumpiness was more pronounced for rail than for truck.
Subject Headings: Uncertainty principles | Radioactive wastes | Frequency distribution | Parameters (statistics) | Standards and codes | Rail transportation | Trucks | Life cycles
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